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Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|